Enacting a New Approach to Scenario Analysis: The Potential of a Pragmatist Account

Davis, Paul and Pyper, N. (2015) Enacting a New Approach to Scenario Analysis: The Potential of a Pragmatist Account. Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy, 17 (5). pp. 427-443. ISSN Online: 1463-6689

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to take a new look at how scenarios are produced and used. It does so from a perspective that is unusual in the field: network pragmatism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper takes a conceptual approach. Findings – A network pragmatist account allows scenarios to play an important role in actions designed to secure specific futures for organisations. It, thus, endows them with micro-political force. Any scenario that fails to exert this force will wither and, ultimately, die, but it can be resuscitated. With its demise in the networked world, a scenario can assume a more partial and private existence, shaping the affections, loyalties and actions of notable individuals. Research limitations/implications – This approach generates novel propositions that question the adequacy of currently dominant cognitive theories. However, it has yet to be tested empirically. Originality/value – Pragmatist reading of scenarios that is proposed is not only distinct but also only ever partial. This work emphasises that a holistic account of scenario lives needs multiple theoretical perspectives.

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