University of Worcester Worcester Research and Publications

A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Taroun, Abdulmaten and Yang, J-B. (2013) A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 64 (8). pp. 1221-1230. ISSN Print 0160-5682 Online 1476-9360

[img] Text
Abdulmaten Taroun JORS article.pdf
Restricted to Repository staff only

Download (232kB) | Request a copy


Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information:

The full-text cannot be supplied for this item. Please check availability with your local library or Interlibrary Requests Service.

Uncontrolled Discrete Keywords: construction, decision support system, Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence, evidential reasoning, risk assessment
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
Divisions: College of Business, Psychology and Sport > Worcester Business School
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Abdulmaten Taroun
Date Deposited: 14 Jul 2016 09:31
Last Modified: 17 Jun 2020 17:12

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item
Worcester Research and Publications is powered by EPrints 3 which is developed by the School of Electronics and Computer Science at the University of Southampton. More information and software credits.