Pacing and Performance in the 6 World Marathon Majors

The main goal of this study was to analyse the pacing strategies displayed by the winners of the six World Marathon Majors in order to determine which race offers the greatest potential for future world record attempts. For data analysis, the total distance of the marathon was divided into eight sections of 5 km and a final section of 2.195 km, and time needed to complete each section was calculated in seconds. When we analysed the mean winning time in the last 13 editions of each of the World Marathon Majors, we observed differences between New York and London (ES = 1.46, moderate effect, p = 0.0030), New York and Berlin (ES = 0.95, small effect, p = 0.0001), London and Boston (ES = 0.08, small effect, p = 0.0001), Boston and Berlin (ES = 0.10, small effect, p = 0.0001), Boston and Chicago (ES = 0.16, small effect, p = 0.0361), Berlin and Tokyo (ES = 0.20, small effect, p = 0.0034), Berlin and Chicago (ES = 0.27, small effect, p = 0.0162). This study shows that Berlin and London are likely candidates for future world record attempts, whilst such a performance is unlikely in New York or Boston.