Future Air Quality and Related Health Effects Across Europe – Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

Ambient air pollution has been shown to be a major public health concern in Europe. Future changes in population exposures to ambient air pollution are inherently linked with long-term trends in outdoor air quality, but also with changes in the building stock. Moreover, the burden of disease is further driven by the ageing of the European populations. This study aims to assess the impact of changes in climate, emissions, building stocks and population on air pollution related human health impacts across Europe. An integrated model is used to test how sensitive the final health outcome is to changes in the main input data. The system connects global (ECHAM5) and regional (RCA3) climate models with two Chemistry-Transport Models (CTMs) DEHM and MATCH. In this study projected future levels of both ozone and particulate matter is used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air pollution (EVA) model system for an integrated assessment of the related exposure and health effects. The Nordic region is studied in detail as the impact of projected changes in the building stock, and hence in the infiltration rates, may impact the exposure to air pollution. The EU Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings requires for example that the all new buildings inside the Nordic region will comply with nearly zero energy standards by 2020 and this will impact the actual exposure. Future projections of NH3 emissions from the ÉCLAIRE project are also included in the calculations. These estimates indicate an increase in NH3 emissions from the agricultural sector by up to ca. 40% due to climate change. We include a scenario using these new emissions to evaluate if increased emission of ammonia due to climate change might have an impact on the related health effects. The integrated system and the proposed analysis will form a basis for improved assessment of air quality and health effects in a changing world.