Defending cutback scenarios in the 2023-24 English Premier League Season: The importance of defensive positioning and spatial organisation

This study examines how the number and spatial distribution of players in defensive roles influence the success of defending cutback scenariosduring match play in the English Premier League. A total of 563 cutback related shot events from the 2023/24 season were analysed from Wyscout video footage using event-level coding in Hudl SportsCode, focusing on delivery areas and defensive organisation. Chi-Square tests and logistic regression were used to examine the influence of variables on defensive success. Results indicated that the number of defenders inside the penalty area did not significantly influence shot outcomes, challenging the assumption that defensive volume alone provides security. Instead, defensive effectiveness was strongly associated with player positioning, with two to three defenders located between the ball and the goal resulting in few goals conceded and more defensive interventions. While the delivery location had limited direct impact on defensive success, it influenced the likelihood of central shot creation, with near and central deliveries more frequently producing high-conversion opportunities. Overall, findings highlight that defensive success in cutback scenarios is driven by coordinated spatial organisation, anticipatory positioning, and collective decision-making rather than numerical superiority. These insights highlight the importance of central space protection and structured defensive coordination in elite football.