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Dew Point Temperature Affects Ascospore Release of Allergenic Genus Leptosphaeria

Sadyś, M., Kaczmarek, J., Grinn-Gofroń, A., Rodinkova, V., Prikhodko, A., Bilous, E., Strzelczak, A., Herbert, Rob and Jedryczka, M. (2018) Dew Point Temperature Affects Ascospore Release of Allergenic Genus Leptosphaeria. International Journal of Biometeorology, 62 (6). pp. 979-990. ISSN 0020-7128 Online: 1432-1254

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Abstract

The genus Leptosphaeria contains numerous fungi that cause the symptoms of asthma and also parasitize wild and crop plants. In search of a robust and universal forecast model, the ascospore concentration in air was measured and weather data recorded from 1 March to 31 October between 2006 and 2012. The experiment was conducted in three European countries of the temperate climate, i.e., Ukraine, Poland, and the UK. Out of over 150 forecast models produced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multivariate regression trees (MRTs), we selected the best model for each site, as well as for joint two-site combinations. The performance of all computed models was tested against records from 1 year which had not been used for model construction. The statistical analysis of the fungal spore data was supported by a comprehensive study of both climate and land cover within a 30-km radius from the air sampler location. High-performance forecasting models were obtained for individual sites, showing that the local micro-climate plays a decisive role in biology of the fungi. Based on the previous epidemiological studies, we hypothesized that dew point temperature (DPT) would be a critical factor in the models. The impact of DPT was confirmed only by one of the final best neural models, but the MRT analyses, similarly to the Spearman's rank test, indicated the importance of DPT in all but one of the studied cases and in half of them ranked it as a fundamental factor. This work applies artificial neural modeling to predict the Leptosphaeria airborne spore concentration in urban areas for the first time.

Item Type: Article
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Uncontrolled Keywords: artificial neural networks, Bio-climate, dew point temperature, disease forecasting, multivariate regression trees, species-environment relationship
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions: Academic Departments > Institute of Science and the Environment
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Copyright Info: Open Access
SWORD Depositor: Prof. Pub Router
Depositing User: Rob Herbert
Date Deposited: 07 Mar 2018 12:14
Last Modified: 18 Apr 2019 08:01
URI: https://eprints.worc.ac.uk/id/eprint/6431

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