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Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock

Geels, C. and Andersson, C. and Hänninen, O. and Lansø, A.S. and Schwarze, P.E. and Skjøth, C. and Brandt, J. (2015) Future Premature Mortality Due to O3, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and Primary PM in Europe — Sensitivity to Changes in Climate, Anthropogenic Emissions, Population and Building Stock. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 12 (3). pp. 2837-2869. ISSN Print:1661-7827 Online: 1660-4601

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Abstract

Air pollution is an important environmental factor associated with health impacts in Europe and considerable resources are used to reduce exposure to air pollution through emission reductions. These reductions will have non-linear effects on exposure due, e.g., to interactions between climate and atmospheric chemistry. By using an integrated assessment model, we quantify the effect of changes in climate, emissions and population demography on exposure and health impacts in Europe. The sensitivity to the changes is assessed by investigating the differences between the decades 2000–2009, 2050–2059 and 2080–2089. We focus on the number of premature deaths related to atmospheric ozone, Secondary Inorganic Aerosols and primary PM. For the Nordic region we furthermore include a projection on how population exposure might develop due to changes in building stock with increased energy efficiency. Reductions in emissions cause a large significant decrease in mortality, while climate effects on chemistry and emissions only affects premature mortality by a few percent. Changes in population demography lead to a larger relative increase in chronic mortality than the relative increase in population. Finally, the projected changes in building stock and infiltration rates in the Nordic indicate that this factor may be very important for assessments of population exposure in the future.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information:

Originally deposited as National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit (NPARU)

Uncontrolled Keywords: integrated assessments, air pollution, health effects, climate change, future anthropogenic emissions, population developments, infiltration
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions: Academic Departments > Institute of Science and the Environment
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Copyright Info: Open Access
Depositing User: Carsten Skjoth
Date Deposited: 06 Mar 2015 14:46
Last Modified: 18 Feb 2016 15:25
URI: https://eprints.worc.ac.uk/id/eprint/3631

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