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Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe.

Kurganskiy, Alexander ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6588-9387, Creer, S., de Vere, N., Griffith, G.W., Osborne, N.J., Wheeler, B.W., McInnes, R.N., Clewlow, Y., Barber, A., Brennan, G.L., Hanlon, H.M., Hegarty, M., Potter, C., Rowney, F., Adams-Groom, Beverley ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1097-8876, Petch, G.M., Pashley, C.H., Satchwell, J., de Weger, L.A., Rasmussen, K., Oliver, G., Sindt, C., Bruffaerts, N., The PollerGen, Consortium and Skjøth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5992-9568 (2021) Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe. Science Advances, 7 (13). eabd7658. ISSN Online: 2375-2548

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Abstract

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

Item Type: Article
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A pdf file of the published article is available to download from this WRaP record.

Copyright © 2021. The Authors, some rights reserved;
exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement
of Science. No claim to original U.S.Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC)

Uncontrolled Discrete Keywords: allergic rhinitis, grass pollen season, climate change, pollen allergy
Divisions: College of Health, Life and Environmental Sciences > School of Science and the Environment
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Depositing User: Beverley Adams-Groom
Date Deposited: 08 Apr 2021 08:56
Last Modified: 08 Apr 2021 08:56
URI: https://eprints.worc.ac.uk/id/eprint/10372

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