University of Worcester Worcester Research and Publications

Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

Smith, Matt ORCID: and Emberlin, Jean (2005) Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom. Clinical Experimental Allergy, 35 (10). pp. 1400-1406. ISSN Print: 0954-7894 Online: 1365-2222

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A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information:

Error in one of the tables and erratum published: Smith, M and Emberlin, J. Constructing a 7-day ahead forecast model for grass pollen at north London, United Kingdom
(Erratum). Clin Exp Allergy, 2006; 36(3): 396-396.

Originally deposited as National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit (NPARU)

Uncontrolled Discrete Keywords: aerobiology, forecast models, grass pollen counts, London, North Atlantic Oscillation, NPARU
Subjects: Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology
Divisions: College of Health, Life and Environmental Sciences > School of Science and the Environment
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Matthew Smith
Date Deposited: 12 Jul 2007 10:41
Last Modified: 08 Sep 2020 04:00

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